Monday, January 24, 2011

Is not decoupled from U.S. commodity or commodity prices upward in 2011

 Goods to the U.S. dollar, Expectations based on the dollar but also to determine the commodity price change it?

we all know, the dollar is an important factor affecting commodity movements. Of gold, for example, gold and the dollar generally was

Thus, while the dollar index associated with weakening commodity prices, but that does not mean the U.S. dollar and commodities Meanwhile, the intrinsic value of the dollar weakening over the longer term pattern will be inevitable - that is, against the currencies of emerging economies decline, the actual decline in purchasing power and so on. It is expected that commodity prices in 2011 is still the focus of further upside. (Investment Futures Wang Hui home)

So, not decoupling of the dollar and commodities, but the intrinsic value of the dollar index and U.S. dollar dislocation occurred. This situation is often staged in 2010, also in 2011 will remain the norm. Because the overall recovery in developed economies faltering, this race worse than the overall monetary environment, and economic problems in Europe the trend more than the United States does not have much change.

Obviously, the dollar index is a relative indicator, not so much its function is a measure of value of the dollar, as it is a measure of dollars in credit and a basket of currencies weak credit what what strong .

as long as in a poor environment than the other currencies even more rotten - for example, the most important index in U.S. dollars, up 57.6% of the weight of the euro, in 2010, while suffering from debt-crisis fell sharply - the dollar index will be a passive rise. Thus, although the actual value of the dollar may be reduced, but the performance out of the foreign exchange market, the dollar index may rise steadily.

but from 2010 onwards, the dollar and commodity investors often feel less and less relevant. Still the gold, for example, from February 2010 to September, the U.S. dollar gold price index was showing up with the same down trend (see chart). Statistical results also confirmed investors feel :2008-2009, the price of gold and the dollar index on the data correlation of -48%, while in 2010, into a -20% correlation - although still a negative correlation But the correlation significantly reduced. Another important commodity - crude oil associated with the U.S. dollar index from 2008-2009 -84% to -49% for 2010.

in answering this question, the dollar index may wish to take a look at what is the definition: U.S. Dollar Index is a comprehensive reflection of the dollar in international foreign exchange market exchange rate of indicators to measure the exchange rate of U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies degree of change. In short, the dollar index can be viewed as similar to a dollar on the Shanghai index against a basket of national currencies (by weight are arranged in the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc) the weighted average exchange rate price.

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