Mortgage interest rates sharply after the New Deal happened as you will - Chen sincerely column - the focus of blog

 (Preface - because of the content point of view as part of the article, the content will inevitably be some convergence of views logic and grammar problems. statements based on respect for other experts point of view, the principle of respect for the reader, faithful to the original article on the basis of live content in the text based on the author's part to do the appropriate changes, and other experts to speak on the text not to modify, directly pick in the original language.) Moderator: congress will held two days, here please Experts predict the congress, the government will be how to assess the state of real estate market regulation, including our future real estate market trends. Chen true: there are two phenomena of economics, one is a domino effect, the second is the butterfly effect, even though non-full market economy, but eventually also in accordance with the Chinese real estate market economy mechanism in operation. Guxue Lin: We are not in the house does not fall under the case of re-creating this market out, and now we have a pork prices and house prices is about the same type, rose to 20 a pound, the people said I could not afford, and now can not be allowed to eat pork, the second block, has now become a concept of what is that many of the retired workers to get the meat subsidy payments, you retired workers can not eat pork, eat, and we take part of the money to support your government, he can afford meat, and pork remained at high prices eat affordable, taking into account also the pork price correction that gave him at subsidized prices, it could afford to eat, like to solve things by which we are now house up, the bottom of our people is not pork subsidies price, because everyone has the right to housing, reform and opening up to now we have both the reform and opening up the glorious mess now, one is the stock market, one is real estate, all of our Shanghai textile machinery is only worth ten million, which how the money can feed the machine all of our workers, and this way the value of hundreds of millions, how this contradiction is deepened so that people can afford to live the bottom of the house, this is the way you can use pork, you can maintain a relatively high point prices, the relative is relative both sides can accept, this is a reasonable concept. Chen sincere: But there is a problem, pork, and the house is not the same thing. China can not achieve individually made to subsidize the grassroots people. And , behind the house and not the same as pork, pork is a direct There is actually based on people's interests are bought. Chen sincerely: the poorest people, often not being bought by people who, on the contrary but those who have not been bought to the people. Guxue Lin: On this question we start with a look at the front there is a meaning in it in fact, all our banks are national banks, the original is the planned economy, banks, including ICBC, CCB, etc., this is the product of planned economy, it must reform and opening up banks into the market up, are now listed companies, the China Construction Bank was listed on the last four major banks, on September 25 after a listing of this policy came out, from my personal point of view is actually a planned economy, banks The product is a product of the market economy, and now it basically solved the big banks, we Youxiang market economy a step further, so I think in the Sept. 27 sunrise this policy is actually to protect the bank's risk factor, so After meeting the policy of congress would be to increase the market economy. He Chengjun: congress is talking about the real estate sector has been the subject, including investment real estate of the people and the Olympics, the congress as a turning point of view, New Deal intervention in the mortgage are relatively strong signal for the congress is also the hearts of the people to do a bedding environment, real estate development to a rational person today has reached a quite see the point of madness, the real estate may rise to the political level to cause attention, but it needs to de-politicize the means to resolve, we need to focus on livelihood issues, political perspective, the central government should have the strength and ability to balance this approach, the mortgage is the New Deal to the New Deal and the land in this direction to the development of small-block mode should be the central government to adopt the model, the original land policy auction and of course the way, from the Government's own resources of land for as little as possible, work as little as possible, although operation may be less able to acquire land interests, while meeting the land, the indicator may often be three to five after the completion of the land hoarding developers to encourage them to invest in small plots of mode of development is conducive to the formation of oligopolies, big block After all, no matter how beautiful the design will be homogeneous, this will affect the municipal facilities, the construction of roads that are harmful to the city, and the other is for developers and intermediaries is also welcome to this model, I do not blame intermediary institutions, intermediaries harm is limited, but it is indeed a speculation played a role, you is not no business to do, but get less profits, the media turned out to be doing real estate advertising is a big block of several advertisement made out of small plots do not need that publicity luxury model, a relatively small plots may help to improve the urban space, urban development, these 20 years, no development of the planned economy era, about the outbreak of a sudden there are a lot of Metro Now 20 years the development of cities has been formed, but needs a small repair, need meticulous management, and this solves the problem of corruption, the central government should be the model to the implementation of small plots of urban management policies, the Chinese the healthy development of urbanization, have a good effect. Chen sincerely: I always believe that the Government is wise, I believe the government is the top decision-making wise. on the seventh National Congress, there are several points that we needed to focus. The first is that price stability reflects the social stability, price stability is guaranteed social harmony as a symbol. At the moment, if to solve the housing problem, in fact, an important potential to solve a social problem. The second is that financial tools are enhanced to use. Earlier, the central bank head said a word: the central bank continue to focus on the problem of negative real interest rates, the central bank must let the real interest rate turned positive! for real interest rates positive, to positive feel to the people is vital to positive , to more than the actual inflation rate. monetary policy inside the modern Western economics to study and solve the problem of inflation is one of the most important tools. So, after the congress, is likely to raise interest rates substantially, or even use of other monetary policy, other financial means. If the second house mortgage down payment and interest rates to improve the policy can not play the desired results, will all the houses may increase the down payment and mortgage interest rates, there may even be canceled�ڷ� sale. at least, a substantial 54 basis point hike will come as scheduled. The third is that it may further supporting the use of financial instruments and financial instruments. The fourth is that the Government's responsibilities and obligations on the current problem. Specifically, the main China's economy is responsible for the situation in 1997 has been different during the Asian financial crisis .1997, at that time, just return to Hong Kong, the Central Government has the obligation and responsibility to help Hong Kong achieve a smooth transition overall. And now, the Government responsibilities and obligations is to ensure social stability and economic health of the main productive forces of society to play the largest and most comprehensive optimization of the economic benefits of achieving the main. fifth is the beginning of 1994 continue to be strictly oriented land policy was a strong executive In 1994 the introduction of the land policy, the purchase of land not developed within two years after the recovery to be free, but not implemented strictly. The last new land policy, and further clearly defined, individual projects must be completed within three years . If this policy can fully implemented, will solve many problems, including supply, speculation to the problems. Why is this policy has not been strictly implemented or not implemented? the deeper reason is also worthy of consideration. Finally As this time under the New Deal in the mortgage, after the congress movement of the housing market look like? we can compare rationally the research. only one thing, we have to pay attention to. If this time can inhibit house prices, house prices will enter a callback period. This is a callback period will be longer reference period and the last round of housing prices in Hong Kong after 1997, a callback cycle perspective, combined with next year formal introduction of real property transfer tax introduced in the follow-up control policy will continue to analyze, this round of callback cycle may be about a decade. the market economy run in cycles. housing prices in such a short time within the rise too so high, and prices change in a certain period there is always a central fact in it. whether house prices have now become non-normally up high, it is always to callback. Hong Kong from 1997 to During 2003, housing prices callback rate is two-thirds. Moderator: Finally, we ask a few experts on the topic of our current brief today to present my point of view. Guxue Lin: We are now inside the economy to raise interest rates is already inevitable, and the last statement the central bank may raise interest rates this time is a double, then the problem is, like most people, it added to or not to add Ye Hao will not seriously, but this added to the Some house slaves who is more powerful, and may even increase after the increase, added later that you bought the house in the early to pay 70%, can not think of pay or pay 70% after a few years, that is, the high burden the burden may crash again, and now there are many examples of real estate is because after the collapse of high-burden, and then sell in the future or continue to raise interest rates banks, then I think this is a more serious problem. The second is that we now have a lot of people in the past loans break out when the evidence is false, this is a bit similar to the U.S. subprime problems because of the risk factor which is great, prices go up then covered up these problems, once the signs of trouble after their own bear capacity is relatively poor, can not afford the risk is relatively large, it will cause a psychological burden on the market, can cause panic in the market because we buy a house inside the market is still relatively weak against the quality, if there is trouble I think This instability will be more powerful, this time on September 27 from sunrise to say the policy is in a sense, a risk factor added weight, the weight increase the number of times, second-hand housing how Canada, the third suites how to get, how to fight corruption, etc., the real estate market in the future so uncertain factors appears relatively weak quality of the original will be exposed to it, I hope you understand what each person will raise interest rates beyond what the consequences will cause everyone Think about this. He Chengjun: New Deal is now the interests of mortgage agencies into the game, the future is full of uncertainty, congress should be more clear and effective way to some measures to change the status quo, which we can be expected. Chen faith: whether excessive speculation or investment overheating, and even purchase their own homes chase, including real estate investment overheating, including banks and credit chasing the overheated real estate expansion, including local government is too keen on price trends through the up to chase incomes, and so everything is based on the housing market in the future expectations, including the expected future trend in real estate, house prices expected, the expected return on investment and so on. All in all, this time the New Deal of the mortgage Therefore, such a great effect, the reason is not simply because increasing the number of down payment, not just how much interest rates increase, the key reason is that it is a serious blow to the expectations. I believe that if the mortgage is not very obvious effect of the New Deal , the Government will through monetary policy, fiscal policy, administrative measures and even as much as possible to take action to solve some problems, such as institutional issues such as further blow to expectations. as long as the housing market is expected to be sufficient to combat the real estate market trend will change . The market changed, the system makes re-adjustment of the real estate, gradually moving towards the healthy development!, of course, the problem is still not entirely sure! which affect the future trend of the housing market factors, there may be many variables. However, it is after all make projections of future housing market. just put the mortgage on the New Deal, based on the upcoming seventh largest, based on people's livelihood and the theme will be further established, based on the trust of the central government macro-control, prediction for the better, it should be for the better ! Although we still worry about this or that, but we have the faith! Moderator: Thank you, Chen, because of institutional and real estate financial reasons, as banks are parochial reasons, the prospect of real estate regulation, or felt fears, in this we have to appeal to macro-control can not worry about the outcome must make a determined effort to accurately guide the long-term in many ways, the system's control, can really practical results, which is also a small number of conditions determined is also the aspiration of the people. As to the time we have this issue of Thank you for your statement, my friends, let us Meet the next goodbye. personal views only and does not constitute investment advice. investors pursuant to operate your own risk. (Chen sincerity of contact: Shanghai:; Changsha: Changsha new thinking business development planning company; QQ: 70479688)