National Bureau of Statistics data in a published price, the network must have a good show, every time I have been to laugh it off. Why? Because 30 years ago, National Bureau of Statistics still use the method, the data in the introduction of public concern , and explains not effective, resulting in misunderstandings are inevitable. However, the introduction of this data, even my friends, the famous China, Mr. Yang Hongxu real estate experts have misunderstood the problem would be bigger. Relying on friends concern, in the enthusiasm of truth, so I feel the need to house data issues to talk about my views.
First, the National Bureau of Statistics data mining point of not more than, the ratio of properly, but more with the same period last year. What year is this year a month a month and year comparison, the red, Mr. Xu is the year to see the data. This data, long-term trends in the study of some reference value, especially when the economy is running smoothly, and in price fluctuations when the data are often distorted. Mr. Xu Hong, said: Rate , National Bureau of Statistics released new: December 2007, 70 cities nationwide housing sales price rose 10.5%, or unchanged from last month; chain rose 0.2%. new housing sales price rose 11.4%, or more than 0.8 percentage points from last month; chain rose 0.3%. very sorry that, despite the red, Mr. Xu did not study inflection point, should have seen the turning point through the data, only a bit of the brain only. The brain is a study of the chain.
Second, the National Bureau of Statistics for the global. inflection point that house prices from the current situation, most people think are local. For example, Wang, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, only said that the inflection point, my other friend Yang Shaofeng Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Shenzhen that the four first-tier cities inflection point. I am the most determined inflection point on, is also only said that in addition to first-line second-tier cities in over 20 cities in the inflection point. Up to now, I have not seen anyone saying, a national turning point has occurred, although the inflection point on the ocean like a round of the Asahi, as if the commotion of a fetus in the womb, will certainly appear in the near future. Also, we call the turning point, is the peak house prices curve after the peak of showing long-term decline, as short as three to five is seven or eight years old. get to do for example, Shenzhen, August 2007, prices for the 18,800 yuan is the culmination of history, then began to plunge in October fell to more than 14,000 yuan, a slight rebound in December to 16,000 yuan, much lower in January and is expected to be broken down to 14,000 yuan. The turning point has been quite obvious characteristics.
Third, the National Bureau of Statistics data if in conflict with the local would rather believe that the local data. The reason is simple, real estate is a regional market, many national experts to the place is not spiritual, low-side research departments of government departments and real estate data tend to be more scientific and more reliable. For example, Shanghai : December 2007, the Shanghai housing prices rose 9.3% year on year, including second-hand housing prices rose to 10.8%.; from the chain point of view, or drop quite significantly, in December house prices rose 0.4% in Shanghai, after the November new home chain rose 0.9% in October is close to 2%, the same decline for three consecutive months. projects in Shanghai, the new disc, due to depressed property market transactions, making the developer's pricing is no longer opening up. Pudong Shanghai Pudong Development Garden of the three forest blocks expected the recent opening, the sales office is expected to sell at 11,200 yuan -14 000 yuan / square meter, the average price of 13,000 yuan / square meter. Prior to the November 2007, the same plate opening of a new era price of 18,000 yuan / square meter, 12 Kim Yi River opened in January, the sales price is adjusted to RMB 14,000 yuan -15000. / square meter. The data is available real sense, is the ordinary people need.
turning point of the word, have become the most Internet Wang's words that users are particularly high degree of concern. As there is no national turning point, when there is not really that important, it is important that the local inflection point has occurred, is important in the minds of the majority of Internet users has been a turning point important turning point of Chinese society has emerged, that flicker is no market for high prices, has been cast aside by the majority of users of the ruthless.
No comments:
Post a Comment