Hot on the well-known economist of Powers
2007 02 12
Source: Guangzhou Daily Author: I went to Beijing to participate in the reporting group
. Reporter photo by high crane Tao
the annual meeting co-organized by the Guangzhou Daily Newspaper Group, the theme of or early April, will be organized by the Guangzhou Daily Newspaper Group, Economic Forum 2007 Annual Conference 50 Dawn, etc., and Tang Min, deputy director of the State Administration of Taxation, Xu Shanda, the Central Financial Work Leading Group Office of the Deputy Director Chen Xiwen, the Central Financial Work Leading Group Office of the deputy director of the Liu He, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center, Li Jiange, the People's Bank of China deputy governor Wu Xiaoling, etc. scholar-officials attended the forum. Guangzhou Daily Newspaper Group, attended the meeting, chairman of Dai Yuqing Wu Jinglian and accepted the certificate issued by the Business Council members.
Jinglian:
most important thing is to meet the requirements of
the happiness of the people theme of the conference theme is: : , several generations to work hard, we should learn from the experiences and lessons of other countries, allows us to go more smoothly that way. We should think about why the development of some countries, well, why the rise of some countries, after which it can not afford or has declined, we have to learn. several important issues well, the country's development, to promote the welfare of the people faster, so I think there are about four aspects: first, the implementation of market economic system; second, democracy and rule of law; Third, freedom of thought and academic independence; Fourth, the rise of middle class need the sense of a large country, China's demand has not become a large domestic consumer market, the big country-based needs. Therefore, in the new non-traditional economic development model before the appearance of the best Chinese in no hurry to put l largest economy r, but for the become a major economy in the future to prepare. The most important preparation is to build China's social security system, so that domestic consumption can scale concluding remarks, said: Home Fan Gang announced at yesterday's meeting, this year the end of March or early April, will be hosting the Guangzhou Daily Newspaper Group, China 50 Forum views of the Forum, a discussion forum or the commission.
(Beijing, reported that group)
China is not only to Date
Source: Guangzhou Daily on:
interview after the economist Hu Angang newspaper asked him to Black Mode : First, I prefer to look positive and optimistic attitude to China's development prospects, the current of modern history, China experienced the largest growth opportunities that economic globalization and information technology revolution, the Party Congress report in 2002 said period of strategic opportunity new level of , it is necessary to consider the next step. as we past 5 years (means on the level of public services. For example, in order to provide a minimum health care for all people, providing safe drinking water, free schooling, etc..
Reporter: Overall, we believe that the development trend of China's good, but the challenge is not there are many, some very serious?
Hu: Of course, we experienced unprecedented development opportunities and challenges facing an unprecedented development. These challenges highlighted in the current major economic and social issues, such as the extensive mode of economic growth not only did not solve the problem, the worse the quality of growth; a serious shortage of energy resources, ecology continues to deteriorate; employment and unemployment pressure is still very heavy; income and wealth inequality in economic and social problems became prominent; social problems and social contradictions become more prominent. especially in the past In recent years, resource-intensive, energy-intensive, pollution-intensive industry too fast, China's economic growth model to re-enter the high consumption of resources, pollution and high emissions of China not only made a few years ago to development is indeed to create great wealth in China, but also on the nature and caused tremendous pressure. transboundary environmental issues, although there are features, but the biggest victims are the 1.3 billion Chinese people. wealth, although created, but the wealth maximize the welfare of people with the real purpose of the development did not reach. Therefore, China can not be higher consumption, high consumption, high pollution and high emissions of air, eat safe food, produced in a good environment and life.
Reporter: So you recommend not to regions below the provincial level statistics, and the growth rate of GDP release, but rather focuses on assessing local government's public service capacity?
Hu: To transform the economic growth and achieve rising green, green development, the core is to transform government functions, in terms of performance evaluation indicators to achieve significant innovation. only dilute the economic growth indicators, while strengthening the government the responsibility of public service targets, China in the next 5 years may realize the transformation of government functions and economic growth pattern.
in the terms of economic growth lags behind the changes in the strategic plan of the central government, the growth targets set for the central layers increased. So last year I strongly recommend: Do not all regions below the provincial level statistics, published GDP and growth rate, assessment of local government performance indicators should be based on public service, public service, including the main indicators of pollution, social security, and other major accidents.
reference to international experience, not statistical GDP, it does not have the performance indicators ah, the main consideration is the per capita income not per capita GDP, in order to identify the poor, as well as the elderly population and services, public health, social security and so on indicators that focus on the welfare of the public, you see, when the Mayor of New York report on his work to the public, when the GDP growth of 9 said I % of what? He first said that lower crime rates and so on.
we learn the market economy, they have to learn how others do, and we are now five governments, five statistics, statistics are even a township GDP. The GDP statistics, not much meaning, because the population and labor force is mobile, there will be a lot of repetitive parts. Why do not require local National Bureau of Statistics GDP, by it to verify it? is the reason .
After 20 years of practice of a market economy so that we form a new consensus: between government and enterprises is a division of labor, and corporate responsibility is to create GDP, the government's responsibility is to provide public services. What is the government's record? not longer GDP, that is the main business or economic activity performance, the Government's performance is to serve the people, that is, areas under the jurisdiction of the entire population (including the floating population, the field population) in public service.
Reporter: Could you talk about the specific about how the Government to provide public services for the people?
Hu: I think, to achieve the equalization of basic public services. to achieve equalization of public services can promote a fair, but also to promote efficiency. For example, you enhance the rate of medical care for migrant workers , both to ensure fairness for migrant workers, but also improve his productivity.
a variety of data that I spoke highly of the current government, is in command from the GDP-oriented government to provide public service-oriented government to gradually GDP performance from the transition of the body to the public service. Now our leaders on the challenges facing China and the issues are clearly seen, there is the political will to solve the problem and political commitment, and the measures taken are targeted, very pragmatic.
the rise of China is to succeed, the main challenge comes not from outside but from within the
Reporter: There will not be good policy central to the case of the following to aliasing?
Hu: This Another study is that China's governance or good governance of research. China is like a miniature United Nations, like a lot of experience in Singapore, I think that reference is more limited. Why? than Singapore, Guangzhou, most of you want to, ah! China has 31 provinces, 333 prefecture-level cities or regions, more than 2,800 counties or county-level cities or municipal districts, there are over 40,000 towns, you see, it has five government! world powers are three levels of government Only China is the five government. China has faced two major asymmetric governance issues: First, there is a problem of asymmetric information, all information is transmitted to the central government was unlikely, while the central policy to local levels, will be compromised due to local interests ah; Second there is a power asymmetry, the central government at all levels face the problem of how to monitor, the more grass-roots level, the more difficult to monitor, while the powers of government and the citizens of the more obvious asymmetry, the so-called day high and the emperor is far Two asymmetry is the need to The challenge is not from the outside, but more from within, mainly from within the party and state bureaucracy, inefficiency and corruption challenges, from the I have many years of research experience of China's national conditions of a major, only economics is not enough, but also political economy approach.
Reporter: Tell us about you, Guangdong, Guangzhou Economic Development of observation?
Hu: Objectively speaking, Guangzhou is the world's future in Detroit it! You see, the world's best car manufacturers, auto parts company, is transferred to the Guangzhou area. Who in the creation of GDP, not that these companies? Why is transferred to the Guangzhou? is because the Guangzhou municipal government to provide a quality public service thing, including transport, ports, communication conditions, and so, these companies was the first step, first off, development experience sharing between Guangdong and the country's time. other places say green development can not, then we will naturally ask: Why, Guangzhou, Guangdong to do it? not only the economy is booming, and increased energy efficiency and pollution emissions also dropped it?
Reporter: You have said that the Western media of have their own opinion, you can make some suggestions? In particular, we Guangzhou Daily, has been seeking to larger, more space for development, you feel as a market-oriented party newspaper, how to improve their innovation, and fully open. I called Guangdong is China's of development. good (good), the United States (beautiful), high (quality), Ya (elegant) knowledge and information, increase your attractiveness to people of this newspaper mm This is the br> Rates: can not drop this year, the stock market: This year will continue to rise
Ocean News February 12, 2007
Source: Guangzhou Daily
pictures taken after the interview, Zhang Shuguang, an economist in 2007
In interview. The old man talked about tax cuts late, administrative expenses and other topics, the attitude is still bright, sharp words.
impact of RMB appreciation will have on the economy, but long-term undervalued yuan continues, the loss will be greater
Reporter : internal and external economic imbalances, China's economy is currently facing a major challenge, how do you think we have to adjust policy to deal with this problem?
Zhang Shuguang: 30 years of reform and opening up, we always encourage export-oriented economic policies in the implementation of , the first 20 years of this policy is right, not the policy that China would not have today's situation and trend. However, any one policy, even better, longer valid, long-term implementation will go negative, because a policy is always encouraged on the one hand and suppress the other hand, is now a problem, and it leads to imbalance in the domestic economy is.
Economic Imbalances great risk.'s trade surplus is the essence of savings over investment, the state is not the accumulation of the cost of the investment into the country, a lot of savings to foreign use. Although the introduction of a number of foreign investment in China, about a year from 60 billion to 70 billion U.S. dollars, but the trade surplus last year, more than 1700 billion U.S. dollars, the trade surplus net of foreign direct investment, as well as surplus of more than 1,000 billion dollars, which is equal to the investment of foreigners in China are all Chinese to finance, foreign investment in foreign countries in part to the financing of China. In that case, why should object to adjust the RMB exchange rate? Of course RMB appreciation on the economy will be affected, but the long-term undervalued yuan continues, the loss will be even greater.
tax is based on the economy, tax revenue growth is now 20%, GDP was up 10%, this is not Jiezeeryu, Banded it? tax is to reduce government revenue, increase business and income of ordinary people.
Reporter: You said that the main direction of fiscal reform is to cut taxes, why?
Zhang Shuguang: Now revenue growth 20%, GDP was up 10% Taxation is based on the economy, some provinces and cities last year in the first half revenue growth of 40% to 60%, this is not Jiezeeryu, Banded do?
successful examples from other countries point of view, possession of wealth among the people is a good policy, tax profit to business, business to development. due to the development of savings and investment will, and tax cuts will increase corporate profits and accumulation.
the past two years, we raised the personal income tax threshold, free of agricultural tax, which is right. But the tax cuts key in reducing the corporate tax burden, there are two very important areas: one is the unity of domestic and foreign income taxes, a VAT is the production of value-added tax to consumption-based transformation.
Unified Enterprise Income Tax has received the State Council approved in principle the motion last December has been submitted to the NPC Standing Committee, is expected to be held this year, happy about.
VAT has been talked about for years, a few years ago to revive the Northeast, the VAT first pilot in the Northeast. In fact, the pilot year, everything has been clear from the fair tax point of view, from the improve the overall efficiency point of view, value-added tax should be implemented in the country.
I think there is a fundamental issues need to figure out, that is, tax cuts reduce government revenue, increase business and income of ordinary people. In fiscal a substantial increase in revenue year after year, the government cut taxes a little, people, businesses where the more one, why not give the people the benefits of growth and business point then?
the other hand, now so much government revenue, an increase of so fast, followed by a substantial increase in spending. But the fastest-growing expenditure of the Government expenditure on administrative and operational expenses, the proportion significantly increased from 90 in the last century, about 13% to 19% more. Tax should really be used on social programs, used in public policy, such as for basic education, for basic health care, social security, spend more money to solve such problems, is legitimate.
present government administration Business spending is a big waste. Nobel laureate Milton Friedman once said that four models of money: work, the most efficient; spend other people's money for their work, the most waste; spend other people's money work for others, the most irresponsible. and misappropriation of national wealth, damaging the public interest.
small cap stocks soared more than 60% of the stock falls instead, 2 / 3 of the investors at a loss, the stock market manipulators have been used by, the risk is great
Reporter: Now the real estate and stock market is very hot, we would not Japanese-style bubble crisis, the Asian financial crisis, so as to disrupt China's rapid economic development?
Zhang Shuguang: stock market rise last year, three factors: first, the Fund, in which more than 5000 million new funding, the Fund accounted for 80%; second, appreciation of the renminbi; third is foreign investment. These three factors will continue this year, so stock up for sure , but now there is a problem up method: First up too fast, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets last year, up more than 130%; the second is the uneven rise quite a few large-cap stocks soared more than 60% of the stocks but down, 2 / 3 of the investors at a loss, the stock market manipulators have been used by, the risk is great, if you still go down this another way, it must go wrong. you know, the excessive rise in asset prices, not the gospel.
Reporter: China's economic trends in 2007 how do you predict?
Zhang Shuguang: I see that, according to current trends, economic growth in 2007, nearly 10% is possible. Despite the world economic growth trends slow, but not signs of a recession. domestic economic problems, as long as the adjustment, no problem.
Reporter: Can you talk about food prices and the overall price trend this year?
Zhang Shuguang: Last year, prices are low, 1.5%, but the trend deserves attention. because the end of last year, food prices suddenly rise, the current argument is also difficult to explain. Last year, grain harvest, prices should not rise, or should also be decreased.
the first half of this year, the general the price of goods will not have any big changes, but the domestic prices in the rally, due to food and food price index in the total weight of 1 / 3, the trend in consumer prices to rise. The key is what happens in the second half. First depends on the domestic food production, we will not have a fourth consecutive bumper harvest; Second is the international trend of food prices will certainly rise. Even if this year's consumer prices rose about 3%, not a big problem, because the moderate inflation conducive to economic growth, better than deflation. The problem is that asset prices, one price; the other is the stock market. prices can not drop this year, because the existing policy can not solve the problem; the stock market will rise. If rising too fast , it will cause the bubble expansion, which in turn will inevitably affect consumer prices.
About
Zhang Shuguang Zhang Shuguang, born in 1939, Shaanxi Chang'an people. CASS Institute of Economics Research Fellow, Professor, Graduate School of CASS, doctoral supervisor, director of Beijing Institute of Economics and days of the Chairman of the Academic Committee, adjunct professor of Zhongshan University. had four papers by the Sun Yefang Economic Science Award and Writing Award, a national scientific and technological progress of soft science prize, two by China Academy of Social Sciences Award for outstanding achievements in scientific research first and second, to enjoy the State Council issued a government subsidy.
Economics Daily
Fan
of Economic Reform in China, vice president of the National Economic Research Institute, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee member
live interview expert economist Fan Gang
Jinglian
one sentence < br> I can only
to ease the property tax gap
WASHINGTON After the forum, pushed the reporter many years ago known as interview. as He and other economists talk about the things in case he suddenly still misses his interview with reporters about the matter. In the hall next to a room, Fan Gang accepted the reporter an exclusive interview.
upgrading the employment of migrant workers can not hurt
reporter asked him, that, for the whole of China, we should now put r l expansion of industrial structure, and should not blindly put l r. upgrade the industrial structure of a region can talk about the upgrading of the structure l r, the Government can not just talk about upgrading. May I ask, in the l Structure retention r and l r low-level industries to between full employment, how to maintain an optimal ratio to achieve a Pareto optimal state? talking about industrial upgrading, but not considered a large number of farmers in China are now about to move to cities to employment, the huge crowd if you can not full employment, it will lead to instability, will lead to the widening gap between rich and poor. Therefore, Even if we have a new more advanced industries, we still can not lose those labor-intensive, low-tech but still competitive in the so-called elimination of low-end industrial manner, to ensure that employment is a good economy, that is, contribute to the economy, such enterprise is a promising enterprise. If we allow those who have accumulated decades of labor-intensive enterprises, restructuring is now engaged in the computer, it unrealistic. At the same time, he said, in fact, industrial upgrading and maintaining Good to know to upgrade the industry value chain, the question is whether the conditions ripe.
Therefore, he stressed that we should still expand the industrial structure, that is now only in improving low-end industrial development, increased gradually. in the next few decades, we do not give up the low end, only engage in high-end. Why? because farmers to employment.
targeting a property tax Producer
When a reporter asked, the lowest income earners, and the house large, many, well, the property tax levy for many, and there will be a progressive tax system. If we add to the specific incentives and sanctions, can be played on the property owners of the property tax role, he said, not a fully representative network of public
recent years, many sites can be seen on the Fan Gang, He said today he still insists to this view, mm, he said the simple reason that the vast majority of workers and peasants are not online, of course, the so-called to merely repeated the baseless assertion, in fact, that I simply was based on a hypothesis, the results of a reporter to understand that according to his own writing. more than 5% may lead to catastrophic consequences, The result, we are not the original English text to see him, they all follow the parrot talked about this 5%. which he is really helpless, do not bother to go to a debate.
two poor college students to be achieved as Free school
WASHINGTON 50 in the Chinese economy during the Forum, the Asian Development Bank chief economist Tang Min, the reporter talked about the difficult problem of poor students go to school, said relatively basic education, higher education, China has put a lot of money, the question now lies in state on the inequitable distribution of investment to higher education.
university is not compulsory, in principle, is who benefits should pay. but still provide assistance for higher education the responsibility of the State, for the poor college students , the state should increase subsidies for middle-income, affluent students, the state should reduce the subsidies.
countries will expand annual investment in higher education, this investment is mainly used in what place, if lower tuition fees in full, such as reduced from 5,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan, it can not solve the problem of poverty, for poor students, also still can not afford to 4,000 yuan.
higher if the countries want a 20% increase in investment, which is a huge investment, countries can not afford to vote, cast from not solve the problem, the crucial point to solve the problem, should be to solve the most poor students free tuition, will be added into all higher education students in poverty, who used to make 10%, and even 20% of the students free tuition or half tuition to achieve the real problem can be solved.
So to solve the difficult problem of poor students go to school, not to reduce the overall tuition fees, but rather focus on resolving the issue of tuition fees for poor students.
attraction of hot money in China is too large
asked Tang Min, China's current economic challenges facing what? He said that China's control after two years, the performance of the entire economic trends better than last year, macroeconomic and growth has become more stable, as long as the consolidation of the current level of development, prevent the economy from overheating again, economic development is relatively healthy. but we can not say that now everything is good, short term, monetary, fiscal and financial reform in three aspects need further .
The first is monetary policy. Practice has proved that, although prohibited by administrative means too much hot money trying to enter the Chinese market, but the current appeal of hot money in China is too large, as long as the income-generating livelihoods, external hot money will come in various names.
for the effective control of the negative effects of the influx of hot money from the excessive control of capital flows and changes in growth patterns of these two aspects:
First, from the macro to strengthen the control of monetary liquidity, if necessary, hedging mechanism should be further strengthened. These two methods will tighten market liquidity, some of the capital market bubble formation was inhibited. economic laws that the East Asian export-oriented economy of China as a country, it is easier to form bubbles. Second is to change the growth pattern China should change from the past investment-based model, into expanding domestic demand, in fact, domestic demand growth in China is already very fast, but still needs further strengthening.
followed by fiscal policy. I personally think that the Chinese government invest more to make public finances should play an active role in poverty alleviation, environmental protection, increase investment and other vulnerable groups, especially the poorer in society should be to help people. According to domestic standards, statistics, China's poverty-stricken population of 2,000 million , the sum of 7,000 million low-income people ~ 8000 people. At present the definition of poverty in China is too narrow, in fact, per capita expenditure of $ 1 per day international poverty standard, there are at least 120 million of China's poor.
Finance into the poor can not fit all. There are many levels of poverty, extreme poverty for the people, the state should give the maximum effort to help, including education, health and other areas of policy to give special support to the poor in general, countries should be given appropriate help, at least in the areas of education, equality of opportunities.
third is financial reform. The next step should be to expand financial liberalization. The next step should be out of the national financial reform funding, over-reliance on government help mode, and to more competition and open the way both to promote competition and innovation in the financial sector in the development environment. rural financial reform policy breakthrough has two aspects: First, diversification, in the past only a form of rural credit cooperatives, rural areas are being taking now diversification of the road, allowing the establishment of small loan companies, rural banks, to encourage farmers to their organization's financial cooperatives.
Second, privatization is a country prior to input by the state-controlled, and now you are taking the rural financial reform and privatization road, this line of thinking should be gradually applied to the city finance reform, to encourage the involvement of private capital participation.
China's stock market is still a casino without rules ...
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